09.07.2026
Kosten des Emissionshandelssystems für die Zementindustrie bis 2034
With the gradual phase-out of the free allocation of emission allowances in the Swiss and European emissions trading systems (ETS), CO₂ costs for the cement industry will rise significantly in the coming years. On behalf of cemsuisse, Polynomics analyzed the direct additional costs of purchasing emission allowances up to 2034.
The study shows that the share of emission allowances that must be purchased will rise from around 1.2 percent in 2026 to 100 percent in 2034. At the same time, CO₂ emissions from clinker production remain high, as around two thirds of emissions are of geogenic origin and therefore process-related and unavoidable. Without the broad deployment of carbon capture and storage (CCS), which is not expected to be available by 2034, these emissions must be fully covered by emission allowances. Avoiding these emissions in the long term requires a competitive CCS value chain, in which transport and storage costs in particular must be reduced.
Based on different price scenarios for emission allowances, the direct ETS costs for the Swiss cement industry up to 2034 are estimated at a total of 753 to 993 million Swiss francs. The study places these developments in the context of the European Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) and Swiss climate policy and shows the economic impact of the gradual phase-out of free allocation on an emissions-intensive basic materials industry.
link to the publication The study shows that the share of emission allowances that must be purchased will rise from around 1.2 percent in 2026 to 100 percent in 2034. At the same time, CO₂ emissions from clinker production remain high, as around two thirds of emissions are of geogenic origin and therefore process-related and unavoidable. Without the broad deployment of carbon capture and storage (CCS), which is not expected to be available by 2034, these emissions must be fully covered by emission allowances. Avoiding these emissions in the long term requires a competitive CCS value chain, in which transport and storage costs in particular must be reduced.
Based on different price scenarios for emission allowances, the direct ETS costs for the Swiss cement industry up to 2034 are estimated at a total of 753 to 993 million Swiss francs. The study places these developments in the context of the European Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) and Swiss climate policy and shows the economic impact of the gradual phase-out of free allocation on an emissions-intensive basic materials industry.